Chinese domain change in 2009: ICANN

[JamesZ]

Originally Posted by touchring

As matter of fact, i've been taking a middle stance until very recently, when the lack of type-in for .cn, and the insecurity made me decide to place lesser weight on .cn (i'll still looking, but less enthusiastic as previously).

The lack of type-in is the most astonishing part since we know that chinese ISPs are resolving IDN.cn using web redirect. For info, they don't do that for IDN.com.

I have seen that and was puzzled for a while, too.

First of all, .com is more popular in China, which could be a reason. But the difference in type-in is much bigger than the difference of their popularities (based on observation of my own names). So there must be other reason.

As we know people in China do not have type-in habit. If they want to visit websites on cars, will they type "汽车.com"? No one! It is really stupid to do that.

So what we have seen is likely mostly contributed by domainers/speculators. I did that quite a lot when I check a name and see it is taken. My strategy has been if both .com and .cn are available, I register .com only since it is much cheaper. Many domainers do not consider .cn at all. So I think that type-in trend we see reflects domainers' preference more than general users' browsing behavior.

That is why I think IDN is a different game compared to ascii. There is no type-in, there will not be type-in even when IDN takes off. We probably will have to wait for 10 more years for type-in to come. Most of the ascii names are valued by type-in traffic. You can buy the name, park it, and make money, which is what domaining is about. But for IDN, you have to buy the name, invest money to build the website, do the marketing (SEO, adwords...) to let people know you. This is not domaining any more. It is a totally different game. There is much more risk in this investment, considering you already have many established competitors there.

[Rubber Duck]

Well the misapprehension that there is no traffic is clearly clouding your judgement.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by JamesZ

That is why I think IDN is a different game compared to ascii. There is no type-in, there will not be type-in even when IDN takes off. We probably will have to wait for 10 more years for type-in to come. Most of the ascii names are valued by type-in traffic. You can buy the name, park it, and make money, which is what domaining is about. But for IDN, you have to buy the name, invest money to build the website, do the marketing (SEO, adwords...) to let people know you. This is not domaining any more. It is a totally different game. There is much more risk in this investment, considering you already have many established competitors there.

I've done Google analytics on idn.com and idn.cn. Very good idn.com does get significant type-in. Both extensions also get some google SERP, but not Baidu - Baidu is really good at weeding out parking pages or minimal minisites (they don't last more than 3 mths).

For most names, type-in is a trickle, and as you said, we may need to wait 10 years for the type-in to amount to anything significant. Most are not prepared to wait so long, we may have another round ....

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

For most names, type-in is a trickle, and as you said, we may need to wait 10 years for the type-in to amount to anything significant. Most are not prepared to wait so long, we may have another round ....

Dreamer! If you look at how long most of the good dot coms have been held already, then that surely must be just wishful thinking.

[JamesZ]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

Well the misapprehension that there is no traffic is clearly clouding your judgement.

I am not drawing my conclusion from my own portfolio. I know it sucks.

Type-in is not an instinct, it is a habit aquired from repeated actions, which meet one's expectation. If you do not get anything by typing in cars.com, insurance.com, loans.com..., will you still do that?

Of course, it depends on your expectation of traffic.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by JamesZ

I am not drawing my conclusion from my own portfolio. I know it sucks.

Type-in is not an instinct, it is a habit aquired from repeated actions, which meet one's expectation. If you do not get anything by typing in cars.com, insurance.com, loans.com..., will you still do that?

Of course, it depends on your expectation of traffic.

Which is why browser resolution is an important issue. Indeed, browser resolution is the the overidding issue, because all the other things that are needed like major advertising campaigns by large corporates all hinge on it.

Microsoft have done us a massive disfavour. First they refuse to update, then they agree to update, but only with their new operating system. Then they agree to do a stand alone but it finally take a couple of years longer than anyone could have anticipated from a company intent on staying in the market. And when they did bring it out both of operating system and the browser didn´t meet market expectations. But don´t worry soon both IE6 and Microsoft will find their place in history.

[JamesZ]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

Which is why browser resolution is an important issue. Indeed, browser resolution is the the overidding issue, because all the other things that are needed like major advertising campaigns by large corporates all hinge on it.

Browser resolution is one thing, awareness of IDN is another, awareness of IDN websites is yet another thing. They do not come automatically. It is a fairly long process consisting several steps, which all take time. As we know, things do not always go smoothly as we expect.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by JamesZ

Browser resolution is one thing, awareness of IDN is another, awareness of IDN websites is yet another thing. They do not come automatically. It is a fairly long process consisting several steps, which all take time. As we know, things do not always go smoothly as we expect.

Look you do not have to lecture me on things not going as smoothly as I expect, I have been there and wear the T Shirt. But this thing has been in the pipe for nearly ten years. If it does not gain momentum over the next few months, then we should all forget about it. Basically, it is a project that MS have done their darndest to scupper, but the reason it is not dead and buried is because IDN have their own inevitability. They will come, whoever and however many try to put them down. The only really serious worry all along has been whether they would ever resolve for the majority of users. Well in some markets they now do and they are gaining momentum. At some point the big bucks will join the game and growth will be exponential.

You are making a huge error of judgment if you think this about incremental growth. It is not. It is revolution. The Berlin Wall stood for decades, and in an instant it was gone. I am sat in the former East right now. If you think half of them are still riding around in Trabants then you understand nothing. I spent a year in Switzerland as a student. This place is beginning to resemble it more everyday. They even talk about not being able to fill posts because the Czechs don´t want that kind of work these days. They sure are quiting the UK and going home at an alarming rate, and so are the Poles. Most British soft fruit farmers will have crops rotting in the fields with no one to pick them.

What most don´t understand, is that this is not just an ascertion of cultural identity. We are witnessing a complete transformation of World Order. The oil price increases are just part of that process. The US is effectively locked in a bidding war for World resources which they are losing, and simultaneously being mocked by the Iranians, who know they are now impotent.

[touchring]

i think james is refering to end user adoption, not the speculation market.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

i think james is refering to end user adoption, not the speculation market.

Once the traffic kicks in and they are self-sustaining, they can sit there forever as far as I am concerned. After that it will be future end user prices whether you are a speculator or not.

I don´t know when it will happen but I do know that it will. I have a parked Japanese that is bringing its annual renewal fee everyday. So we do know it will happen, it is just a question of when.