What percentage of Users with be on IE6 at Year End?

[Rubber Duck]

OK, lets have all your guesses, backed up with your analysis.

The general press seem to not be able to do basic arithmetic. Who here can do better?

I don't know whether Vista will be a resounding success or whether people will flee to Apple in droves. I am guessing not but who knows.

Lets start with a 100% of the cake and segment is first by Operating System.

After that can we look at XP and work out how many will still be on IE6, to establish what the residual percentage of IE6 users will be. Don't forget to factor in machines that will be scrapped and replaced, as well as first time buyers of new machines.

If you feel really confident, then give is to us by Country or Language rather than just a global lump. Actually, it might pay to think about some of the bigger economies separately. For example is the fact that Microsoft is charging double in the EU what it is in the states going to affect the market situation there?

Lets see who can come up with the most convincing arguments and hence hopefully the best estimate.

[mulligan]

Id say Japan will jump on Vista and it will be as natural as babe to it's mothers breast ...
They seem to welcome 'new' technology', in whatever form and are keen to get their hands on it.
I would hazard 60-70% penetration by year end.

Singapore -- I havent heard anything much here, no fuss or big advertising push (Small population -- less than 4.5 million so hardly worth the effort) And while some will upgrade I doubt it will matter much.
I did have a play with it today and it is nice but for me XP works fine and I have no plans to upgrade.

China -- Good penetration, I would imagine it has been cracked, whacked and packed a while ago and tweaked to get updates -- 50% penetration by year end.

Europe -- No idea, a long time since I was back there.

And, purely in the interests of ..... whatever -- below is a snapshot of what is freely available for download from a well known bit torrent ...

[Rubber Duck]

Thanks Mulligan. This looks a bit more likely than this bit of doppy commentary from the Kansas City Star:

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansas...s/16583838.htm

<<Consumers whose computers work fine with Windows XP, Vista’s five-year-old predecessor, may not see a compelling reason to switch. Al Gillen, an analyst at technology research group IDC, estimates it will take five to seven years before the majority of systems that run XP are retired.>>

So what he is actually saying is that it will be sometime between 2012 and 2014 before Vista penetration reaches 50%. Well, I can assure him either Microsoft or the IDC will have gone out of business before then! At that rate XP will still be around until about 2020!

Say we reach 50% mark in 2013. The average age of XP operating systems will be 8 years old and the average age of Windows is going to be around 5 year old including Vista. What kind of wanker writes this drivel? By 2013, I would guess that Vista itself will have been superceded at least twice!!!