More Evidence that Treasury Figure Simply do not Add UP

[Rubber Duck]

The slump in U.S. manufacturing deepened while the economy skirted recession, reports today showed.

Industrial production declined 0.7 percent in April, the Federal Reserve said in Washington today, more than twice the drop forecast by economists. Separate figures from the New York and Philadelphia branches of the central bank indicated the slide may continue this month.

Only exports and consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, are keeping the six-year expansion alive as housing shows no sign of a rebound and factories retrench.

``There is no question about whether or not there is a recession in manufacturing -- there is,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, who correctly anticipated the drop in industrial production. ``Housing is in deep recession and manufacturing is in a shallow one.''

The 0.7 percent decrease in production at factories, mines and utilities followed a revised 0.2 percent gain in March, the Federal Reserve said today. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.7 percent, the lowest level since September 2005.

Industrial production was forecast to drop 0.3 percent after a previously reported 0.3 percent gain, according to the median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News....

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

We have been told in recent weeks that exports and productivity is rising and employment has stablised. However, if production is falling and employment is stable that should mean productivity is tumbling. WTF is going on?

The other thing is that if retail sales are rising, where is the inventory coming from, especially when imports are suppose to be falling?

Sorry, but all this adds up to one very confused Duck!